A Possible Coalition Government: A Rundown of Events

Well, I have to admit that I had somewhat lost the will to make Political Clarity a reality shortly after creating it with Dave Gordon in the fall of 2007. I think most of that had to do with his move to the United Kingdom and lack of internet presence thereafter.

Anyway, it took one of the most interesting sagas in Canadian political history to jar me back into the realm of interest. It seems that most Canadians woke up last week to the discussion of a coalition government and had no idea what was going on or at stake. I will try to help out here as best as I can.

The 40th Canadian General Election that took place this October saw the Conservative Party of Canada strengthen their minority government to 143 seats of 308.

The result was widely predicted and construed as somewhat of a lucky break for the Liberal Party of Canada who had their weakest leader in history, Stephane Dion, decimated in the press and through Tory attack ads.

Needless to say, some observers even questioned Harper’s standing as Prime Minister considering this past election was viewed as his greatest opportunity to seize the initiative and deliver a majority.

Harper had different ideas than that though.

Last week, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty delivered some economic points Canadians could look forward to seeing. In this package he outlined the removal of public financing for political parties based on the number of votes they obtained in the election.

Let’s set the stage for this. The Conservatives have created one of the most successful fundraising programs in Canadian history. Many people attribute this to a wealthier class supporting the Tories nationwide with the ability to donate more.

Unlike the CPC, the Liberals, NDP and BQ, all rely heavily on the financial compensation per vote to provide a viable Opposition to the government. This is a crucial role in a democracy after all.

This is just one of the things that Harper and his group of Ontario Harris-ites brought into the mix. Inaction on the economic crisis is a main sticking point. Let’s also not forget that Harper vowed to work with the Opposition in order to make this government work. Apparently his ‘almost’ majority meant simply majority to him. What is being 12 seats short in the grand scheme of things anyway, right?

Well…

In a bold more, outgoing Liberal leader Dion and NDP Jack Layton agreed to form a power sharing Coalition to present to Governor General Michaelle Jean. For more information on this, visit here: www.cbc.ca/news/pdf/081201_Accord_en.pdf

I would make sure that we all keep Jean Chretien and Ed Broadbent in mind while reading that Accord. They might have done quite a bit to cement it.

Anyway: Onward. The Liberals and NDP have said enough is enough and decided to bring their 114 MPs together (77 LPC, 37 NDP). Eighteen Liberals will sit in a Coalition Cabinet. Six NDP will sit amongst them. Each will still report to there own caucuses.

But, here is the tough sell. In order for the Coalition to succeed, it will need the support of the Bloc Quebecois on votes of confidence (such as Budgets, and those deemed confidence votes). The Bloc of course is the ‘sovereigntist’ party from Quebec.

The Conservatives are drilling the airwaves with their massive communications team painting this as a ‘deal with the devil’ considering the ‘separatists’ will be floating the coalition for, as agreed, 18 months minimum.

But, what Harper is not telling people is that in 2004 he sent a letter to the Governor General outlining nearly the same type of agreement with the Bloc when it was Paul Martin’s Liberals in power. Now news is coming to light that Stockwell Day, one of the current government’s sitting ministers also knew about deal brokering with the Bloc in 2000. Apparently, when the shoe is on the other foot the Conservatives may cry foul.

In any case, it now lies in the Governor General’s hands what to do with this mess on Parliament Hill.

She has a few options. First of all, she could agree to a request from the Prime Minister to send us back to the polls for another snap election. The chances of this though are slim.

She could also agree to a request to prorogue parliament and send everyone home until January 26, 2009. The next day the Tories would put forth a budget. This budget will almost certainly be soundly defeated in the House of Commons and Harper would lose confidence. At that point, it is likely that the Coalition would be asked to form a Government with Dion as Prime Minister until May (Dion is on his way out for the Liberals and will only be in power until May when a new leader is chosen. My money is on Michael Ignatieff by the way. One can only hope this time).

Another option is that she tells Harper that he has to face Parliament for a vote of confidence on Monday, December 8th, 2008. At this point in time, Harper’s government would be defeated. We would either enter into an election as mentioned before or Dion would be asked to form the next Government of Canada.

Oh what times lie ahead?

I am of the belief that the Governor General should decline the proroguing of Parliament due to it only being a delaying tactic in the defeat of the Conservatives. We need people in the House of Commons to deal with this economic crisis.

It would have been in power for the foreseeable future if he realized he still only had a minority in the House. I really wonder how his primary teachers dealt with the kid that couldn’t play nice.

J.